The return of fear of job loss (you shouldn't worry too much)
#373
Friend of Democracy,
Do you, like me, increasingly read and hear concerns that we might run out of work? Because of the new possibilities offered by artificial intelligence.
It is said that people won't be needed any more for many things. Jobs would then disappear. Like payroll clerks, market researchers, proofreaders. And many others. Unemployment would then rise, so the fear goes. Similar to Germany in the 1970s and 1980s (see the chart below). This could ultimately endanger democracy. Because dissatisfied people tend to vote for extremist parties.
There is a but.
The concern that people will run out of work is as old as progress itself.
It is only a blink of an eye in the history of humanity that the vast majority worked in agriculture. Before industrialization in Europe, about 80 to 90 per cent of the population. Then came progress. Machines. Fertilizer. Today, approximately 900,000 people still work in agriculture in Germany, accounting for 1.2 per cent of the population.
What happened to those who no longer work in the fields? They no longer had to worry about the most crucial thing: procuring food. They could do other things. Build bridges. Turn to science. Organise travel. Create AI. Of course, this didn't happen overnight. The transition was often difficult. As a result, however, unemployment didn't rise. Instead, prosperity did.
The late editor of the business section of the wonderful Süddeutsche Zeitung, Nikolaus Piper, once wrote in an editorial: "As long as people have desires, and people can fulfil these desires, we won't run out of work."
What we must ensure in a democracy, however, is that change succeeds. That jobs that are lost are created elsewhere. That those whose qualifications are perhaps no longer in demand are taken along. That they can learn new things. And where that's not possible, there has to be good support. Smart politics makes this possible. That no one has to suffer. That is no problem in theory. Because the benefits of progress can be used to compensate for the drawbacks.
What we have to do is translate the theory into reality as best as possible. Then, people won’t vote for extremist parties.
See you in Democracy,
Johannes Eber
📊 Paqué, K.‑H. (1990). Unemployment in West Germany: A survey of explanations and policy options (Kiel Working Paper No. 407). Kiel Institute for the World Economy.