What Putin is fighting for
#273
My Dear Friend of Democracy,
I recently listened to a podcast (it is in German).
One of the questions discussed there was why Russia attacked Ukraine almost three years ago.
You might ask whether this question is currently relevant. Shouldn't we consider how peace can come to Ukraine in 2025, at least a ceasefire?
But there is a link to the two questions. If we want to understand how the war can end, we have to know the motivations of the war participants, so above all, why was this war started in the first place?
And there is another reason why the question of why Russia started this war is important: In my environment and especially on social media, I keep hearing that the West is partly responsible for this war.
So, let's start with Putin himself.
He regularly puts forward two arguments:
1) Nazis are in power in Kyiv and are a threat to Russia. This growing threat must be stopped militarily.
2) The expansion of NATO is also a threat to Russia. The "military operation" in Ukraine is intended to prevent NATO from expanding there as well.
The first reasoning raises the question of whether a serious debate about Putin's arguments makes any sense at all. However, since the second argument, in particular, is also widespread among voters in Western democracies, here are a few thoughts on this second argument.
So the question is: did Russia attack Ukraine because more states in Europe joined NATO? Were, as is often put in academic circles, "Russia's legitimate interests” violated?
What are these "legitimate interests"? It is Russia's security, right?
So, has Russia's security really been threatened by NATO since the collapse of the Soviet Union? Did or does NATO consider conquering Russia? No one has ever made this threat. NATO was and is a defence alliance.
The newest NATO member, Finland, for example, did not want to be admitted so that it could attack Russia. It wanted to join so that it would be less attractive for Russia to attack the Scandinavian country.
The Finnland example also shows that NATO's expansion was not actually an expansion. NATO's goal was not to become bigger; it was states that were worried about attacks from Russia that turned to NATO.
So, NATO does not threaten Russia.
However, for Putin, the West is a threat indeed.
He has the interest (one should definitely not call it "justified") in staying in power. Following this interest becomes more difficult as the closer, more free, prosperous life comes to Russia's borders. A free, prosperous Ukraine is unbearable for Putin because people in Russia can see clearly what life could be like. And they know that this life will not exist with Putin as dictator. More and more people would, therefore, turn away from Putin. And Putin would have to (and does) use ever stronger repression to secure his power.
✊ Putin is fighting freedom. He is doing so to protect his power. This interest is undoubtedly not legitimate. Dictators have no legitimate interests. Instead, the people have a legitimate interest in getting rid of such dictators. Let us help them to assert their interests.
See you in Democracy,
Johannes