Prosperity depends on migration (do politicians realise this?)
#418
Friend of Democracy,
How can Germany maintain its prosperity?
Through immigration.
Conservative circles won’t like that. But that is an economic reality.
And not only that.
Since the potential for migration from within the European Union has been exhausted, immigration will increasingly come from third countries in the future.
These are two key findings from the three economists Herbert Brücker, Yuliya Kosyakova, and Enzo Weber, published in the German academic journal Wirtschaftsdienst (which covers German economic policy and for which I work).
Here are a few more key points.
The current situation in Germany:
“Seven million – that is how many workers Germany will lose over the next 15 years due to demographic change alone. The demographic impact has been negative for many years, resulting in a loss of more than 400,000 workers per year. In reality, however, the German labour market is only just beginning to shrink. Until now, this decline has been more than offset – by rising labour force participation among older people and women; and, above all, by immigration. But these compensatory mechanisms are increasingly reaching their limits.”
The authors argue that the notion that artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly taking over tasks, and that there is therefore little need for additional workers, is a fallacy:
“Digitalisation and AI are leading to far-reaching changes in jobs and work processes, but not to a decline in overall labour demand.”
The answer, therefore, is: migration – and that applies at all levels:
“It is often overlooked that migration increases the labour supply not only at the lower end of the skills spectrum, but also at the upper end. Depending on the period under review, the proportion of graduates among immigrants in Germany is just as high, or even higher, than in the population without a migrant background. This potential can be further strengthened, for example, through targeted support for international students and measures to encourage graduates to remain in the country.”
By the way: migration fosters innovation. To quote Brücker, Kosyakova and Weber one last time:
“Numerous studies show that migration and diversity boost productivity growth. Innovation often arises where knowledge from different contexts is brought together – a process that is fostered by migration.”
So, this article brings together two favourite topics in current German politics: migration and growth. However, the connection is not quite as some on the conservative side see it. But it is an economic fact: Migration and growth are often two sides of the same coin.
See you in Democracy,
Johannes Eber