My Dear Friend of Democracy,
Would there be war in Ukraine today if, back then, at the NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania, in 2008, Ukraine (and Georgia) would be allowed to join the military alliance?
The U.S., under President George W. Bush, tried to convince its allies but failed. Germany and France remained unmovable in their positions. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel later acknowledged she had concerns about negative reactions from Russia.
Merkel was wrong. Putin reacted to not joining NATO.
A few months after the Bucharest summit, Russia invaded Georgia and, in 2014, Ukraine.
Putin hasn‘t dared yet to attack a NATO country. He probably wouldn‘t have attacked NATO members Georgia and Ukraine.
What does this mean for today?
For peace in Europe, we must offer Ukraine (and maybe also Georgia) a path to join the alliance. This is what William B. Taylor, U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2008, is convinced. In the New York Times, he writes:
„Europe will not be secure - and will not be whole and free - until Ukraine is in NATO. Ukraine will not agree to end the war without it. The United States is key and must show sustained, persistent and creative leadership. With confidence and strength, and a lot of hard work on all sides, Ukraine can become a member of NATO. For peace in Europe, it must.“
What do you think?
See you in Europe,
Johannes