We could probably have prevented the war in Ukraine

#414

Friend of Democracy,

Would Putin’s Russia have invaded Ukraine (exactly four years ago) if the international community had reacted differently to Putin’s occupation of Crimea in 2014, if it had given Ukraine more support and imposed tougher sanctions on Putin after 2014?

We in Germany have a particular perspective on this issue. We have the history of a 12-year Nazi dictatorship nine decades ago.

Back then, after Hitler seized power in 1933, hardly any country stood up to Hitler until it was too late.

The British author and historian James Hawes writes in „The Shortest History of Germany“:

„Only the spinelessness of the other powers allowed this vile regime to survive and grow. After 1919, America was clearly the most powerful nation on earth. If it had remained committed to an active role in the world, no German leader would have believed he could revise the result of World War I by force. Instead, the USA failed to step up to the international plate, opting instead for isolationism. Russia had been traumatised by revolution and famine, and was now in the grip of Stalin’s murderous Great Terror. Stalin was terrified of provoking the German attack he knew would someday come. An exhausted Britain simply couldn’t believe that anyone in Germany actually wanted another war; until 1938, its leaders stayed fatuously convinced that if they treated Germany fairly — generously — Hitler would be satisfied. France was even more scared by war and was so torn by internal left-right political conflict that many Frenchmen feared the German army less than their own communists. This non-opposition handed Hitler triumph after triumph, when any real resistance would have soon finished him.“

So, the answer to the question of whether the democratic West could have prevented Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is: probably yes.

See you in Democracy,

Johannes Eber